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This past off-season we voted in several changes to our rules, which now look like this. The essential change was the move to 35-man rosters. Rather than having an "injured reserve" (IR) list where we could place players who were on the disabled list or in the minor leagues, we now have 35-man rosters, up to 25 of whom may be active, and the others are inactive but need not be disabled or in the minors to be placed there. On the other hand, while the old IR was of unbounded length, the price we pay for the roster flexibility is limited size. The offseason trading market was rough. Subrata managed to swing several trades of players (David Ortiz, Mark Mulder, Jake Westbrook) who, while more than spare parts, were also limited or damaged in some way, and got good stuff for them. Otherwise the market mostly consisted of people trying to get hold of an extra draft pick or a few extra keeper years. After working for a month to find some keeper years, I finally traded (effectively) my 7th-round draft pick for 4 years, with which I kept Jerome Williams and Ryan Madson. I'm hoping they will blossom some this season. Other than being unable to keep the expensive Bobby Abreu, my keepers shaped up fairly well. Heading into the draft, I wasn't sure how people would treat 35-man rosters. Would they result in a big prospect-fest, or in widespread slurping up of replacement talent to stash away in case of injury? I guessed the former. I also guessed that the really top prospects would be much more highly valued by others than by me, and decided to spend my high picks on talent for this year and leave the prospecting for the back half of the draft. The draft took ten hours this year, which seemed at least an hour longer than last year, but people mostly seemed pretty happy that we managed to draft about 425 players at a rate of less than 90 seconds a player. I ended up with the following team:
The crux of my strategy was identifying that there were few quality shortstops left after keepers were announced (Jeter, Nomar, Tejada and Crosby were all kept), so rather than spend a high pick on Renteria, Cabrera or Carlos Guillen, I instead decided to spent two picks on J.J. Hardy and Jhonny Peralta, two promising young players who both won starting jobs out of spring training. Both carry some risk, but I think the chance that one of them develops into a useful regular is pretty good. I spent much of the draft agonizing over whether to spend a pick on another solid catcher, or rely entirely on John Buck. As you can see, I eventually decided to just rely on Buck. That might come back to bite me. I just barely missed picking up Miguel Olivo, which I think would have made a pretty good tandem. As it is, I hope Guillermo Quiroz comes up by mid-season and mashes the ball. Finally, once again I feel like I have half a pitching staff. Clemens and Perez should both be very good. Zito ought to bounce back from his weak 2004, but maybe not all that far. Bonderman is everyone's pick for a big breakout this year, but that's far from certain. Robertson, Myers and Williams are all decent back-of-the-rotation sorts. Halsey is a gamble. I have a pretty good collection of prospect talent, both sleepers for next year (or the year after), and some pitchers who might help this year. Whether injuries or ineffectiveness force me to jettison some of it to make use of my inactive roster for other players, time will tell. It turns out there was a lot of drafting of top prospects in very early rounds (Felix Hernandez was taken in the first round), which is a bandwagon I was happy not to get on. Inactive rosters tended to be stocked with prospects by some teams, and with active players by others. Which might make for some ugly horse-trading later in the year. Overall I don't think this team is as strong as last year's. Certainly I have the kernels of a really good offense, but I also have some potential holes at hard-to-fill positions if things don't pan out. Pujols and Ramirez can only carry me so far. I think the league will be very competitive this year, which on the one hand means I have a shot at a prize even with a mediocre team, but on the other means the competition could be tougher than ever, relatively speaking.
All-Star Break Update: It's been a pretty good first half, as I headed into the break in second place by a few points. Of course, the first-place team is crushing us all, but still, this is my best showing in the league this late in the season, so I'm pretty happy. It would take a true disaster for me to fall out of the money, I think. Some parts of my draft worked out wonderfully. My top three picks - Aramis Ramirez, Roger Clemens and Barry Zito - have all met or exceeded expectations (as usual Zito started slow and has been improving). My "young shortstop" strategy - drafting JJ Hardy and Jhonny Peralta and hoping one of them would work out - turned out exactly that way: Peralta has been solid, while Hardy has been awful and I cut him. My keepers have mostly lived up to their billing, as Pujols, Giles, Cabrera and Bonderman have all been good-to-great. The one blemish there has been the awful season of Oliver Perez. The icing on the cake has been my 12th-round pick of Morgan Ensberg, who's having a career year, and my 16th-round pick of Brett Myers, who's having a breakthrough year (though will probably fade a bit in the second half). Nate Robertson and Brad Halsey have also met or exceeded my hopes. April saw my team with three weaknesses: First, my catching stunk. The advantage to getting absolutely nothing from a position is that it doesn't take much to improve on it, and you don't give up anything by cutting the non-performer. So I traded for AJ Pierzynski, and he and Buck have combined for a decent catching combo. Second has been my outfield, which behind Cabrera and DeJesus has been so-so. Craig Wilson got hurt and is missing much of the season. Jacque Jones started strong and has faded. Jose Cruz has been not as good as hoped, largely due to severe back problems. Eric Byrnes has not been much good. I've been patching around the problem with waiver claims - Bobby Kielty, Robert Fick, that sort of thing - but it's still be difficult. Lastly, my bullpen has been mediocre. Kiko Calero got hurt, and I ended up settling on the trio of Ryan Madson, Giovanni Carrara and Rudy Seanez, who turn in some great weeks and some poor ones. It's been good enough. My brilliant waiver-wire pickup of the year has been Felipe Lopez, who's having a breakout season. Ruben Gotay stunk up the joint in April, got cut by his owner, and I picked him up and have gotten two good months out of him. And Casey Fossum has been a decent starter for the Devil Rays. Overall I feel that I have a strong team, but not a world-beating one. But I have some tradable commodities in reserve in the event that I need to make a big move in the second half. I really need to find that third solid outfielder, and maybe one more starter. But doesn't everyone need one more starter?
Second Half Notes: As I thought, I easily had a strong enough team to finish in the money. I never seriously challenged for first place, though, because the league champion ran away with it from fairly early on and no one ever really came close. I had something of a struggle in the second half as many things went wrong at once: Clemens, Bonderman and Myers faltered down the stretch, DeJesus and Aramis Ramirez both suffered injuries which put them on the shelf in September, and Morgan Ensberg battled a shoulder injury. I ended up deciding to stand pat since I felt I was still strong enough to finish in the money, and trading away part of 2006 (via draft picks) in order to capture just a little more prize money in 2005 didn't seem worth it to me. I finished fourth, and was passed late in the year by a team on a big surge which finished third. Lessons learned this year? Well, I need to stop dicking around with prospect picks in my top ten picks, since my team is one of the strongest in the league (thanks to my keepers) and I need to invest in trying to win each year through those picks. Moreover, I need to be less married to the prospects I do draft and be willing to convert them into usable players for the current year when people come calling. On the other hand, my player evaluation is working pretty well, as my 2006 picks were mostly pretty effective, other than those who got hurt. So I feel like I'm making progress.
hits since 7 April 2005.
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